Law and the Environment : Environmental Lawyer & Attorney : Foley Hoag Law Firm : Boston, Washington D.C.

For those of you looking for a cogent and concise economic analysis of the current debate regarding the distribution of allowances in the Waxman-Markey bill, take a look at this post from Rob Stavins.  Rob makes several important points, but I think that two are most fundamental.  First, with some caveats, how allowances are distributed does not affect the environmental results attained by the program.  Second, the allocation proposed in the Waxman-Markey bill is by no means a “give-away” to industrial interests. 

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As highlighted in yesterday's issue of Greenwire, one of the controversial aspects of the  American Clean Energy and Security Act (ACES) passed by the House Energy & Commerce Committee last night is that 35% of the allocated allowances created in the cap-and-trade program will go for free to the electric power industry.  30% will go to Local Distribution Companies, or LDCs, traditional regulated utilities who sell power directly to consumers, and 5% will be allocated to independent merchant energy generators that sell power to wholesale power markets, primarily in the Northeast, Great Lakes, California and Texas.

Not surprisingly, the allocation between LDCs and merchant generators is the subject of substantial political infighting. Merchant generators own 40% of the nation's generating capacity, but as Greenwire reports, the National Association of Regulatory Utility Commissioners, which represents the LDCs, is campaigning to knock out any share of allowances for merchant generation.  

Following an amendment to ACES that passed Committee yesterday, the emission allowances given to local distribution companies must be used exclusively for the protection of retail ratepayers against rising electricity rates.  In other words, utilities have to pass on the savings from their 30% of allocated allowances to their customers.  Not so for the allowances given to merchant generators, who sell power into the grid, rather than directly to consumers.  Their 5% share could apparently be worth $2.7 billion to $5.5 billion a year, depending on how high the price of carbon allowances are in the program's first years. 

The 5% allocation to merchant generators is seen as necessary to obtain support from House members from Texas and the Midwest who represent a number of coal-fired merchant generators.  Such votes could be critical in a House floor vote, which is the next hurdle for ACES.

Even though ACES was voted out of the Energy and Commerce Committee last night, the allocation debate is not necessarily finished.  Chairman Waxman said he would accommodate Republican requests to have at least one more day of additional hearing testimony over the distribution of emission allowances next month. 

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Congressmen Waxman and Markey today released their proposal for allocating allowances under a cap-and-trade program. At least 15 different categories of entities will receive a piece of the allowance pie. Here’s the list:

Local Distribution Companies –                           30%

Merchant Coal and PPAs –                                      5%    

Natural Gas Distribution Companies –                   9%

States (for home heating oil users) –                     1.5%

Low/moderate income households –                   15%

Energy intensive / trade-exposed industries –    15%

Domestic oil refiners –                                          2%                                                     

Carbon capture / sequestration –                          2%    

Renewable Energy / energy efficiency –             10%

Advanced automobile technology –                       3%

Research and development –                                1%

Tropical deforestation / offsets –                         5%

Domestic adaption –                                             2%

International adaptation/technology transfer –    2%

Worker assistance / job training –                        0.5%

If you think that this adds to more than 100%, you are correct, though it is also true that these numbers vary over time. Most significantly, the first four items above would phase out in the period from 2026.

What’s notable here? The total amount of allowances allocated to LDCs and merchant generators is about what was expected, but of that 35%, the merchant generators may have expected to get more than they did.  We’ll see how the coal industry responds to this proposal. 

The phase-out period is almost certainly more generous than environmentalists expected or hoped for, and is evidence that the vote counters did not believe that the votes would be there for the bill otherwise.  For allowances to utilities and power producers not to begin to phase out until 2026 would be a major victory for the industry.

Obviously, this is not the end; we’ll see over the next few days how the Waxman-Markey proposal is received. The bill itself is scheduled for release later today.

(If the percentages in the columns aren't justified, blame our blog host; I just couldn't make it work and still get this done this century.)

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Based on the current pace of developments, weekly updates on climate change legislation seem to be about the right frequency. This week’s forecast is bullish on more free allowances.

The news this week has centered on the delay in scheduling a mark-up on the Waxman Markey bill in the house. It has been widely reported that the mark-up has been delayed because the sponsors don’t yet have enough votes to pass the bill in committee. I wouldn’t read too much into the difficulty at this point. It doesn’t mean that a bill won’t get out of committee or won’t get passed. It just means that these are difficult issues, which we already knew. As Senator Reid said: “Health care is easier than this global warming stuff.” Now that’s a quote likely to chill an environmentalist’s heart.

In terms of getting a sense where the substantive terms of the bill are headed, I thought that the most revealing quote was from Representative Gene Green (D-Texas), who apparently told reporters that the mark-up has to wait for another hearing, and that that hearing should take place after the bill’s sponsors fill in the blanks on how allowances will be allocated. This remains the $64,000 question – or perhaps it’s more like the $64,000,000,000 question (that’s a lot of zeros to type). 

We previously reported that the administration has pretty much acknowledged that some allowances would be allocated for free, at least initially, and it is looking more and more as though that will be the case. As each day passes, my prediction regarding the number of allowances that will be allocated for free to existing generators increases.  

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Now that the initial euphoria following the introduction of the Waxman-Markey climate change bill  has passed, this past week may have reminded supporters of climate change legislation just how difficult it will be and what sort of compromises may be necessary to get it done. First, Greenwire reported again on the difficulty that senators and representatives from coal states will have supporting climate legislation that would increase electricity rates. This was consistent with the recent Senate action that seemingly put the final nail in the coffin on the idea of using the budget process as a vehicle for climate legislation in the Senate (in order to avoid the threat of a filibuster).

Last Thursday, the Obama Administration seemed to acknowledge this reality. White House spokesman Benjamin LaBolt, while stating that the Administration’s goal remains a cap-and-trade program in which all allowances are auctioned, rather than simply allocated to existing emitters, noted that Congress was looking at a number of options and stated that the Administration “will be flexible” in order to get a bill passed. Another White House aide, Joseph Aldy also did not rule compromise on the auction issue.

Part of the Administration’s concern has to be placating the so-called Gang of 16, a group of moderate Senators. It is difficult to imagine climate change legislation being enacted without the support of this group, which includes several senators most people would think of as reliable votes for the Democratic leadership.

The Administration faces a difficult balancing act on this issue. If it signals too early and too strongly a willingness to compromise, that could be perceived as a sign of weakness and the debate could shift too far—from the Administration’s perspective—toward allocating allowances, rather than auctioning them. On the other hand, if the Administration sticks too firmly to the auction approach, it risks losing credibility and influence, as Congress may simply develop legislation without regard to the White House. If I were a betting man, I’d still assume that climate legislation will include an auction, but the percentages may start out relatively low (perhaps with a mechanism to increase that percentage over time).

This post also appeared on the Environmental Protection website, an organization that provides pollution and waste treatment solutions for environmental professionals.

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 As we mentioned yesterday, the discussion draft of the Waxman-Markey “American Clean Energy and Security Act of 2009” which was released on Tuesday is notable both for what it includes and the significant portions it leaves to be decided at a later date. 

In summary, the bill contains four titles:

1) a “clean energy” title, which promotes renewable energy through a portfolio standard of 6% in 2012 rising to 25% by 2025, additional funding for carbon capture and sequestration, a low-carbon transportation fuel standard, and authorization for federal agencies to enter into long-term contracts with renewable energy providers;

2) an “energy efficiency” title, which calls for a nationwide building efficiency code, and directs EPA to set emission standards for locomotives, marine vessels and non-road sources;

3) a “global warming” title, which specifies that greenhouse gases are not to be treated as criteria pollutants or regulated in new source review under the Clean Air Act (the authorities currently viewed to be EPA’s best tools in regulating greenhouse gases), lays out up to 83% cuts in greenhouse gas emissions from 2005 levels by 2050 and creates the framework for a cap-and-trade auction system to be overseen in part by FERC, but does not specify how allowances would be allocated or auctioned, nor how auction proceeds would be spent, other than giving a portion to preventing international deforestation; and

4) a “transitioning” title which establishes a new council within NOAA to prepare an adaptation plan and fund, but does not provide details on where the funds come from, and lays out various programs creating release valves to be triggered by increasing prices, but again withholds critical details, such as how the programs will provide assistance to consumers.

After the jump, we provide more detail about Title 3, the Global Warming section.

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I finally found time to review the 648-page “discussion draft” of the “American Clean Energy and Security Act of 2009” released by Representatives Waxman and Markey this week. It is fair to way that, though release of the draft may be an important way-station on the road to a climate change bill, there remains a lot of work to do. While the draft includes some important markers that are likely to set boundaries on what might be included in the final bill, it is at least as notable for what is omitted than for what is included. Here are some highlights of Title III of the bill, which addresses climate change: (We hope to post soon about the energy titles as well.)

·  No surprise here – the bill would create a cap and trade program requiring facilities with emissions of more than 25,000 tons per year of CO₂ equivalents to have allowances in order to continue such emissions.

·  Allowances would be allocated so that emissions would decrease 20% from 2005 levels by 2020 and 83% from 2005 levels by 2050

·  The bill contains a framework for an auction system, but it does not specify what percentage of allowances will be auctioned or what will happen to the proceeds.

·  There are several measures designed to address concerns about multiple, conflicting, or inefficient regulatory programs:

o  The President is directed to “harmonize” “to the extent practicable” DOT fuel efficiency standards, EPA regulations, and California regulations regarding motor vehicle emissions

o  Other than regulations implementing the act, EPA is precluded from using existing authority to regulate greenhouse gases as hazardous air pollutants or under NSR rules (unless they have non-climate change related impacts) and precludes listing of greenhouse gases as criteria air pollutants based on their impact on climate change

o  State cap and trade programs would be preempted, at least from 2012 through 2017. It appears as though allowances already issued under RGGI will be folded into the federal program

Overall, this looks like a measured approach designed to win support from both sides. Environmentalists will be pleased by firm caps, including a 2020 cap more stringent than some have proposed. Regulated industries will be pleased by the attempts to harmonize standards on motor vehicles, preclude Clean Air Act regulation of greenhouse gases, and to preempt state or regional cap and trade programs.

If I had to guess, I’d say that this bill marks the death knell for regulation of greenhouse gases under existing Clean Air Act authority (assuming that a bill gets passed; if Congress fails to act, then EPA certainly will use existing authority); it is probably also the beginning of the end of state and regional programs.  On both of these issues, If Representatives Waxman and Markey are already staking out this position, then it seems difficult to imagine a final bill that doesn’t incorporate these elements of the draft bill.  As to the rest, time will tell.

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The results of EPA’s annual auction of sulfur dioxide (SO₂) allowances under the acid rain program provide empirical support for a proposition that the regulated community repeatedly advances – certainty is critical to the success of complex regulatory regimes. Prices for 2009 allowances fell from last year’s average of $380/ton to $70/ton, or more than 80%. Prices in the 7 year advance auction fell even more dramatically, from $136/ton in 2008 to $6.65/ton, or more than 95%.

The short explanation for the crash in prices? Uncertainty over the fate of EPA’s Clean Air Interstate Rule. Although there may be a number of other factors in play, the consensus seems to be that CAIR is the primary culprit. Having a rule issued, challenged, struck down, vacated, and then temporarily reinstated does not provide much of a basis for rational investment planning by corporations that might need allowances.

The number and identity of the bidders are also interesting. Two bidders purchased more than 98% of the spot auction allowances. One bidder – JP Morgan Ventures Energy Corporation – purchased essentially 100% of the 7 year allowances. (Though you will all be comforted to know that “Bates College Environmental Econ” was able to purchase 2 allowances in both the spot and 7 year auctions.) Of course, most of the allowances are allocated to existing emitters; fewer than 3% of allowances are auctioned. Nonetheless, this seems like remarkably little interest.

Is there a lesson here for a CO₂ cap and trade program? Don’t let the perfect be the enemy of the good might be one candidate. Another would simply be not to tinker too much. The importance of cost certainty in corporate planning may be obvious, but that does not mean that it doesn’t bear repeating in times such as these.

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As the New York Times reported on Friday, New York Governor David Paterson may increase the number of carbon allowances that New York gives to power plants for free, creating a significant policy departure from New York's earlier approach to RGGI.   New York, together with seven other RGGI states, had earlier committed to auction nearly 100% of its allowances.  As such, New York gave away only a small portion of its allowances this year (1.5 million out of 62 million) through a program designed to lessen the impact of RGGI on the price of electricity. Paterson's proposed adjustment would increase that number four-fold, giving away 6 million allowances to regulated power plants, at an estimated value of $21.9 million per year.  That money could have otherwise been used by the state to fund energy efficiency programs.  

If New York were to change its allocation structure, the state would have to reopen its regulations, and any change would require notice and public comment.  As a result, any changes would not impact the next auction, scheduled for March 18th, or, apparently, the following two in June and September.  Although New York controls 31% of the allowances in the RGGI program, this potential shift would not affect overall carbon emissions from power plants.  Both the amount of allowances allocated to New York and the total number of allowances in the RGGI program are capped. 

Regardless of the number of allowances now to be allocated, the change is potentially politically significant. The statement from the Governor's office is framed in neutral language -- "we have an obligation to monitor how a program is working and advance any needed changes to make the program more effective."  Nonetheless, one wonders whether the lawsuit filed last month by Indeck against New York, alleging that the state agencies did not have the authority from the New York legislature to implement the program, played any part in the Governor's decision.  That lawsuit and this potential change in New York's allocation structure are both underpinned by the idea that New York's implementation of RGGI adversely affects against electric generators that are bound by long-term fixed-price contracts, and cannot pass the added price of allowances on to consumers. 

New York's shift might also make it more difficult for the other RGGI states to stick with their 100% auction, in face of pressure from industry groups to increase allocation, though, as ClimateWire reports, some state leaders have discounted the potential impact. It also remains to be seen what effect this will have on the national debate.  As we noted last week, the debate over how a cap-and-trade or carbon tax would operate is beginning to heat up.  Since RGGI is the nation's first CO2 cap-and-trade system to be implemented, experiences with RGGI are likely to have a significant impact on national legislation.

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As we noted last week, President Obama’s budget includes revenue from auctioning 100% of allowances under a cap-and-trade system. ClimateWire today reports two competing versions of the prospects for a 100% auction approach. First, the Southern Alliance for Clean Energy signed up a number of economists, including Franklin Fisher of MIT, in support of the President’s plan to auction all allowances from the get-go. Part of the argument reflects environmental justice concerns, stemming from the recognition that a cap-and-trade program will increase utility costs. The Southern Alliance is expecting that some of the auction proceeds would be rebated back to low-income consumers, thus cushioning that blow.

As ClimateWire notes, the U.S. Climate Action Partnership, which includes the NRDC, EDF, and the Nature Conservancy, has already lined up behind a plan that would allocate up to 40% of allowances to industry at the beginning of the program, with the amount of allocated allowances decreasing to zero over time.

In the same issue, ClimateWire reported that Abyd Karmali, the head of carbon emissions for Merrill Lynch, has concluded that the President’s proposal won’t fly in today’s economy.  Mr. Karmali predicts that not more than 30% - 50% of allowances will be auctioned initially.

Will the President get his way or is Mr. Karmali correct?  Over the past year, people have underestimated President Obama at their peril.  At the same time, it’s hard to argue with Mr. Karmali’s assessment of the current political climate.  Unless we get some prompt political climate change, I’d guess that a 100% auction approach remains some years away.

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