Law and the Environment : Environmental Lawyer & Attorney : Foley Hoag Law Firm : Boston, Washington D.C.

The Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI) celebrated its third anniversary by holding its 13th quarterly auction of carbon dioxide allowances on Wednesday.   As today's Market Monitor report highlights, although the number of bidders was up, the percentage of allowances purchased was down.  Thirty-one bidders purchased just under 18% of the 42,189,685 current compliance period allowances offered for sale by the 10-state group (including New Jersey).  These allowances, with vintage dates from 2010 and 2011, can be used by electric generators in the current compliance period, which will end in December.  The previous low for demand for these allowances dates from the last auction in June, where 25 bidders bought only 30% of the available allowances, also at the floor price of $1.89.  

The states other than New Jersey then held an auction offering 1.8 million allowances from vintage year 2014, which can be used to comply in the next compliance period, from 2012-2014.  In perhaps the most direct sign of uncertainty for the future of RGGI, no one bid on these allowances. 

Per the Market Monitor report, there were not any market barriers to bidding in the auction of future compliance period allowances.  Bidders were just not interested.  The future of RGGI could seem  uncertain to would-be-bidders, between member states' reconsidering their involvement -- for instance, New Hampshire's Senate recently failed to overturn a veto by the Governor of a bill that would have removed the state from the program -- and RGGI, Inc.'s ongoing comprehensive review of the program for the new compliance period. 

In addition, the compliance entities, who are estimated to own 97% of the allowances in circulation, might feel that they have enough allowances already.  In the press release accompanying the monitor report, Maine's Public Utilities Commissioner chalked the low sales of the auction up to reduced emissions across the RGGI region, arguing that the states' investment in energy efficiency have worked.  With lower emissions, fewer allowances are needed.  Since RGGI allows banking, but not borrowing, extra allowances from the 2009-2011 compliance period can be used in the 2012-2014 period, but not the other way around.  As a consequence, the over-allocation of allowances to this early period could make sales of RGGI allowances in the second compliance period sluggish, even without the added political uncertainty.

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Demand for allowances in the nation's only cap-and-trade program for carbon dioxide emissions fell sharply last week.  At the 12th Quarterly Auction of the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI), held on June 8th,  70% of the current compliance period allowances went unsold.  As the RGGI Market Monitor Report highlights, with only 25 bidders participating in the auction of the 2009-2011 compliance period allowances, only 30% of the 42 million allowances offered for sale by the 10-state group (including New Jersey) were actually purchased at the floor price of $1.89.  Demand for future allowances, good for the 2012-2014 compliance period, fared only slightly better, with the 5 participants in that auction buying just over 50% of the 1.86 million allowances offered by the still-participating states (minus New Jersey, which supplied allowances for the 2009-2011 auction, but not the 2012-2014 auction) also at the floor price of $1.89.  

This sharp drop in the sale of allowances at auction is surprising, particularly given that the last auction, held in March, sold out of allowances for the first time since Auction #8.  The number of participants who qualified to bid at the March and June auctions did not differ much -- 49 and 47, respectively -- but the number of participants who actually submitted bids fell sharply, from 36 to 25.  An even more significant difference is the number of allowances that each of these bidders bought.  For instance, while the top two bidders in March bought over 10 million allowances each, the top bidders in June bought just 2.6 million and 1.9 million respectively. 

As yesterday's ClimateWire highlighted, theories about the causes of this surprising drop abound.  My favorite is that companies regulated by RGGI already have most of the allowances they will need to cover their emissions in the compliance period ending in December, and these unsold allowances are primarily due to the excess supply under the RGGI cap.  Other theories cite to New Jersey's recent announcement that it would withdraw from the program by the end of the year as a sign to would-be-buyers that the program is threatened.  But New Jersey's break with RGGI will not be as quick as initially reported.  The official letter from New Jersey's Commissioner of the Department of Environmental Protection outlines that the state will continue to participate in the allowance auctions for calendar year 2011, as it did in the June auction last week, and that regulated power plants in New Jersey are not being relieved of their obligation to hold sufficient allowances to cover their emissions in the initial compliance period, which ends on December 31, 2011. 

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If anyone had any doubts about the significance of the conventional pollutant regulations that EPA would be rolling out, even in the absence of a full cap-and-trade program for GHG, Wednesday’s release of EPA’s revised power plant MACT proposal should go a long way towards eliminating those doubts. As most readers know, the rule replaces the Bush-era MACT rule that would have created a trading program.

The rule poses a problem for critics of EPA. While arguments can be made about the feasibility of some of the standards and the cost to comply, they cannot credibly allege that it is a back-door effort to regulate coal out of existence. The rule is required by statute and the courts already rejected EPA’s attempt to implement a trading program for mercury.

Apparently, EPA acknowledges that this rule will result in the shut-down of approximately 10 GW of coal-fired capacity, though EPA is taking the position that most of that capacity would shut down for other reasons.

As to substance, the rule is too long – the currently available version weighs in at 946 pages – to describe here. EPA has a reasonably helpful summary, though it doesn’t describe the actual standards. Suffice it to say that, given the absence of a trading program, and the imposition of very low emission standards for mercury and PM (or non-mercury metals), control technology will be necessary to comply with the standards. I don’t think that there’s any such thing as low mercury or low PM coal. The days of uncontrolled coal units are coming to an end.

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Back in my public policy days, there was much discussion of “muddling through.” When I look at recent developments on the climate and air regulation front, I just see a muddle. First, we have Gina McCarthy, saying that EPA wants to walk before it runs, and assuring utility executives that New Source Performance Standards for GHG emissions will not have a “dramatic effect.” McCarthy further said that EPA will take a “common sense approach,” comparing it to EPA’s approach to the GHG BACT guidance, which she described as “not overly ambitious.”

At the same time, the first PSD permit for GHG has been issued, to Nucor Corporation's direct reduced iron manufacturing facility in Louisiana. While praising Nucor for utilizing DRI technology, which apparently generates lower GHG emissions than plants utilizing coke, and while acknowledging that this was one of the first GHG PSD applications, EPA raised two concerns that may be troubling to permittees. First, the permit would require a package of good combustion practices, but did not include a numerical limit for GHG emissions. EPA commented that the permit had not justified why a numerical limit would not be feasible. 

Second, EPA noted that the permit did not provide a basis for the conclusion that carbon capture and sequestration, or CCS, would not be feasible for this project. EPA’s comments referred to EPA’s December 2010 GHG BACT guidance as noting that CCS is generally available for iron and steel manufacturing facilities.

To EPA, the BACT guidance may be common sense. However, to the regulated community, it creates uncertainty. Uncertainty means risk. Risk means costs. Will EPA insist on numerical standards? What are those standards going to be? Based on the EPA's comments regarding CCS, it appears that EPA may be intending to treat the GHG BACT guidance as having the force of regulation. If so, we are stuck with the worst of both worlds – the absence of the protection provided by notice and comment rulemaking and the absence of the flexibility in utilizing guidance, rather than regulation. 

Moreover, EPA does not appear to understand the scope of the uncertainty created by such actions. EPA may allow the Nucor facility to proceed without CCS, once the permit application is amended to include an explanation of the infeasibility of CCS. However, there is no point in requiring such an analysis unless there is some possibility that CCS may be required. The regulated community – and state regulators – are left wondering under what circumstances CCS would be considered feasible. The same is true with the analysis of coal and natural gas. It’s difficult to read the BACT guidance without concluding that, under some circumstances, BACT for coal might be gas. However, we don’t know yet what those circumstance would be. 

On the other side of the aisle, as it were, we have the muddle that is Congressional opposition to EPA GHG regulation. Fred Upton, Chair of the House Energy and Commerce Committee, has described the NSPS standards as a “backdoor attempt to implement their failed job-killing cap-and-trade scheme.” Sadly, I only wish it were so. He seems to think that describing NSPS standards as a “cap-and-trade” scheme is the worst kind of insult. However, he’s got it backwards. First, unlike the cap-and-trade plan, the NSPS regulations are required under the existing Clean Air Act as interpreted by the Supreme Court in Massachusetts v. EPA. Second, cap-and-trade was proposed precisely because it has been demonstrated to be an economically efficient way to attain pollution reductions. It’s really only fair to describe it as job-killing if you don’t believe in anthropogenic climate change. (I’m too tired to go there today.) If Congress doesn’t want EPA to kill jobs, then give it the tools to regulate as efficiently as possible. 

Moreover, as noted in the Daily Environment Report, while Congress is up in arms about EPA climate rules, Congress is extremely unlikely to limit EPA’s authority to issue the Clean Air Mercury Rule and Clean Air Transport Rule, both of which are going to have more significant impact on power generators and electricity prices than GHG NSPS.

Occupying the middle ground – if not the muddle ground – is Senator Rockefeller, attempting the most delicate of balancing acts. While still complaining about EPA’s veto of the mountaintop removal permit for the Spruce No. 1 mine and backing legislation which would delay EPA’s GHG rules for two years, Rockefeller criticized “EPA-bashing.” Rockefeller’s view is apparently just that coal is important, coal cannot survive serious GHG regulation without CCS, and CCS requires more time. We’ll see how his dance plays back home and with the Chamber of Commerce. I thought that we are now against backing particular technological solutions and I certainly believe that sooner or later, we're just going to have to bite the bullet and put a price on carbon.

For now, though, I guess we’re just muddling through.

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The 10th auction in the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI) was held on December 1st.  In honor of this significant round number, I give you the top 10 interesting facts about the 10th RGGI Auction, all of which are based on today's market monitor report:

10)  In the Auction, 24,755,000 allowances from the 2009-2011 compliance period sold for $1.86 each (the floor price);

9)  That amount is only 57% of the 2009-2011 allowances offered for sale, the lowest yield from a current compliance period auction;

8)  38 entities bid on these current compliance period allowances, down from 45 in September and 51 in March;

7)  The generators subject to RGGI compliance and their affiliates (collectively "compliance entities") purchased 97% of the current compliance period allowances sold;

6)  1,172,000 allowances from the second compliance period (2012-2014) were also sold at $1.86 (the floor price);

5)  That amount is 57% of the 2012-2014 allowances offered for sale -- the lowest yield to date for this vintage of allowances -- and 100% of them were bought by just 4 compliance entities;

4)  In the 10 RGGI auctions, taken together, compliance entities have purchased 85% of all allowances sold;

3)  Due to trading on the secondary market, after the 10th auction purchases are settled, compliance entities will hold 95% of all RGGI allowances in circulation;

2)  All together, the 10 RGGI auctions have brought in more than $777.5 million for the 10 RGGI states;

and

1)  The RGGI states have collectively invested about 80% of the RGGI funds in strategic energy programs, most of which involve energy efficiency improvements in homes and businesses.   RGGI has created a website compiling the states' announcements on the success stories from these investments.

The next RGGI auction will be held March 9, 2011.  

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The Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI) auction program celebrated its second birthday this week by holding the 9th regional auction of CO₂ allowances.  As today's report highlights, the auction brought a bittersweet first for the 10-state program: unsold allowances from both the current and future regulatory periods.  Bidders bought only 75% of the 45.6 million 2010-vintage allowances offered and just 61% of the 2013-vintage allowances, with both auctions closing at the mandatory floor price of $1.86.   Not surprisingly, given these results, participation in the auction was down -- the 2010 auction garnered bids from 45 entities, 92% of whom were regulated generators or their affiliates, down from March's relatively robust participation of 51 bidders.   According to today's report, regulated entities have purchased 84% of all allowances sold in Auctions 1-9, and through trading on the secondary market, will hold 95% of the allowances in circulation, once the allowances sold in Auction 9 are distributed.

Under the RGGI rules, the leftover allowances from this week's auctions may be sold at a future date, or a state may choose to retire them.  Since many people believe RGGI allowances to be over-subscribed, retiring some or all of these leftover allowances might be one way for the RGGI states to re-balance the market and encourage further reductions in emissions. 

Even at the floor price, the RGGI proceeds keep growing.  In the last 2 years, the auctions have brought in $729, 281,959 for the 10 states, who are collectively investing 80% of the funds in state-based energy programs: 60% in energy efficiency programs, 10% to accelerate deployment of renewable energy technologies, and 10% to direct consumer benefit programs, such as assistance to low-income ratepayers.  RGGI, Inc. noted in its press release accompanying the market monitor report the hopes that this "auction and invest" design will be a model for a national program as well as other regional programs like the Western Climate Initiative and the Midwest Greenhouse Gas Reduction Accord. Since regional programs are likely to be the model for the foreseeable future, this certainly seems like a possibility.

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Now that the Senate has put an end to speculation about a federal cap-and-trade program, the laboratory of the states and patchwork of regional regulation seem even more important.   The Western Climate Initiative (WCI) will likely involve a little of both.

Yesterday, the WCI Partner Jurisdictions (seven US states and four Canadian provinces) unveiled their comprehensive strategy for a cap-and-trade program with the goal of reducing regional greenhouse gas emissions by 15% below 2005 levels before 2020. The program is planned to begin in 2012, although apparently only California, New Mexico, Quebec, Ontario, and British Columbia are on track to have trading systems operational by that date. Even so, these two states and three provinces account for 70 percent of the greenhouse gas emissions the WCI partners produce.

The report recommends standards for regulations governing allowances, creation and use of offsets, credits for early action reductions since 2007, and other design features of a cap-and-trade program, but does not itself dictate specific regulations. Instead, the regional goal will be reached through individual states’ and provinces’ implementation of separate programs that supply allowances for quarterly regional auctions. While this individualized approach makes sense given the wide diversity of settings and the fact that WCI crosses not only state but national boundaries, it does leave a large number of factors up to the individual jurisdictions.  

Among the details that are undecided is how many allowances will be at play (a critical issue and lesson learned from the implementation of RGGI). Each state or province will adopt its own budget and determine how allowances within that budget will be distributed to emitters – through allocations, direct sales or auctions. In yesterday's report and a more detailed one from early July, WCI recommends that each jurisdiction’s 2012 allowance budget be the expected 2012 actual emissions, rather than starting with an initial cut, but then begin to decrease (at a rate to be set by each jurisdiction), with another increase in 2015 when the cap expands to cover transportation fuels and residential and commercial fuels as well.  

Offsets would be more tightly defined by the regional structure: an offset certificate issued by a WCI partner jurisdiction must meet all recommended offset criteria and result from a project located in Canada, the US or Mexico. It is recommended that each jurisdiction restrict the use of offset certificates to 49% of aggregate emissions reductions – such a limit will be expressed as a portion of each emitter’s emissions that may be covered by offset certificates or allowances from other programs.  

The WCI partner jurisdictions seem to have adopted a number of RGGI’s features, including a quarterly regional, single-round, sealed-bid auction structure, 3-year compliance periods, unlimited banking of allowances, and an auction floor price.  But as the report notes, the partner jurisdictions expect auctions to be only one component of allowance distribution – different from RGGI, where nearly 100% of allowances are auctioned.  The portion of allowances that each jurisdiction submits to the quarterly regional auctions may vary across jurisdictions and may also change over time.  Such flexibility could allow each jurisdiction to address competitiveness and leakage issues more directly than a regional plan. 

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Climate change legislation is dead for now. I won’t pretend it’s not depressing, even though I avoid the political channels and ignore the rhetoric. For those of us who haven’t refudiated climate change science, it’s a victory for the pessimists and evidence that Congress has a hard time addressing long-range problems, even if consequential.

With respect to regulation of GHG, it’s the worst of both worlds and no one should be happy (which is why I held out hope until the end that cooler heads would prevail). We’re still going to have regulation of GHG, the mechanism being EPA’s recently promulgated Tailoring Rule for GHG. One word. Ugh. Does this really make climate skeptics happy? Do they really think that they will somehow succeed in rolling back the Tailoring Rule? I don’t think so. On the other hand, we don’t have an economy-wide cap-and-trade or carbon tax regime. Are environmentalists happy? I still don’t think so. 

I’m left feeling a little like Rodney King. Certainly, the issue isn’t going to go away before the next Congress is sworn in.

As I have noted before, however, problems with climate change legislation don’t mean that Congress can’t enact legislation further regulating traditional pollutants. The three-pollutant bill now before the Senate already has a Republic co-sponsor, Lamar Alexander. Now, according to a report in E&E Daily, even Senator Inhofe is stating that he’s interested in working with Democrats to move three-pollutant legislation. Given the failure to move GHG legislation, hell is likely to get hotter before freezing over, but if Inhofe can really be brought on board, there’s no reason why legislation couldn’t pass.

Three-pollutant legislation shares one significant feature with the GHG issue. Like GHG regulation, efficient regulation is hampered by limitations in existing law, as we saw with the D.C. Circuit’s rejection of the trading regime in the CAIR regulations, and EPA’s much more limited trading program in the Transport Rule. Senator Voinovich, another Republican that three-pollutant legislation supporters would like to have with them, noted as much, saying that the transport rule would be a "stringent and inflexible regime." New legislation could provide for a more robust trading regime. We’ll see if that’s enough to bring Republicans on board.

I sure hope so. Right now, all we’ve got is a GHG regulatory program that won’t do much for climate change, but will cause my clients endless headaches, and a Transport Rule that’s probably the best EPA can do on traditional interstate pollution, but not nearly as cost-effective as it might be with new legislative authority. I remain an optimist, but sometimes it’s difficult.

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Not surprisingly, the secondary market price for Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI) allowances fell for the 4th quarter of 2009, as noted by RGGI Market Monitor Potomac Economics in their recent report.  Trading in RGGI allowances futures declined from 319 million allowances in the third quarter of 2009 to 127 million in the fourth quarter, despite the number of firms participating remaining the same.  Futures prices also declined 8% -- from $2.45 to $2.25.   Even so, futures prices remain notably higher than the clearing prices of the RGGI auctions, which were $2.19 and $2.05, respectively, in the September and December 2009 auctions.

One reason for the continuing decrease in RGGI allowance prices, both through auction and on the secondary market, is the steep decline in CO₂ emissions from the RGGI-subject power plants.   As highlighted in a recent report by Environment Northeast, due to the economic crisis, fuel switching energy efficiency programs, and renewable energy, emissions from those plants have fallen 34% since the start of the program, to just above 120 million tons of CO₂.  This is well below the current RGGI cap of 188 million tons, and even below RGGI's ultimate 2018 goal of 10% reductions from 2005 levels. As such, RGGI allowances will likely remain a surplus commodity well into the future. 

Even given these facts, though, RGGI allowances are far from worthless.  Particularly given that the House-passed ACES bill, as well as all of the front-runner energy and climate bills possibly considered by the Senate have contained provisions for the exchange of federal allowances for RGGI allowances, even the RGGI allowances that might not be needed by RGGI-covered entities could still be worth their weight in federal CO₂ credits sometime in the future.

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A week after the Senate’s rejection of the Murkowki resolution last week, where does climate change stand in Congress? The defeat of the resolution is not the end for those who don’t want EPA to regulate under existing authority. Senator Rockefeller hopes to get to the floor a bill that would delay EPA regulation of stationary sources for at least two years, but keep in place the mobile source compromise reached last year. Rockefeller has stated that he hopes to get the votes of some Senators who opposed Murkowski’s resolution.

What about cap-and-trade legislation? Notwithstanding the President’s stated commitment to getting it passed, it’s not obvious that the votes are there. Senator Lieberman, one of the sponsors, is now saying that the bill deserves a debate, notwithstanding the absence of 60 votes. Not exactly an encouraging prognosis for those who want legislation to be enacted.

I’ve got to say, it looks as though paralysis remains the word of the day. The Senate may be the world’s greatest deliberative body, but with respect to climate change, it’s difficult to see anything other than sound and fury, signifying nothing, for the near term. 

And that’s two Shakespeare quotes in one month.

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So, Kerry Lieberman (Graham?), also known as the American Power Act, is here. What does it mean?

My immediate reaction is that, in a big picture sense, they got it just about right. The fundamental issue, which was previously acknowledged by Senator Graham (can we start calling him “he who must not be named?”), is that we’re not going to solve the energy independence or climate change problems unless we put a price on carbon. This bill does that.

Frankly, the rest of the issues really only matter either to particularly constituencies or, as a related concern, to particular members of Congress. What are some of these other issues and how would they be handled in this bill? We’ll be getting a more detailed client alert out shortly, and if you can't wait, you can review the short summary or the section by section analysis, but here’s the very quick version.

Basic cap-and-trade provisions –

Goal is to reduce CO₂e by 4.75 percent of 2005 levels by 2013 and 83% by 2050, with interim targets in 2020 and 2030

EPA administrator will set allowance numbers to reach those targets

Only facilities emitting >25,000 tpy CO₂e will be subject to the program

Generating facilities are subject to the program in 2013; manufacturing facilities will not be subject until 2016.

Initial price floor of $12/ton and price ceiling of $25/ton

Limits on who can participate in the carbon market to avoid market manipulation

Allowances used primarily to cushion consumers from energy price increases, but also to support various industries

Includes a “WTO-consistent border adjustment mechanism.” In the absence of a global agreement, tariffs will be imposed on countries without similar GHG controls

Nuclear power – lots of help for the nuclear industry

Off-shore drilling – Provides substantial revenue sharing to certain coastal states, but allows states to prohibit leasing within 75 miles of their coastline

Coal – significant support for carbon capture and sequestration

Renewable energy – Does not include a national renewable energy standard, or RES, though does provide for federal assistance to encourage development of renewable energy technology

Preemption – preempts state cap-and-trade programs, but not other state regulation of GHG. Precludes EPA regulation:

No listing of GHG as criteria pollutants based on climate change impacts

No listing as hazardous air pollutants based on climate change impacts

Limitation – but not complete preemption – of GHG regulation under existing NSR authority

Don’t yell at me if this list does not include your favorite provision. This is a blog, not a treatise. As to the big political picture, I still think that, if Senator Graham can be brought back on board, there is a reasonable chance that this bill passes. If not, then I’m pretty skeptical. 

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The Western Climate Initiative is scheduled to begin its cap-and-trade program in 2012.  But as ClimateWire highlighted today, the number of states who will be ready and willing to participate in the program is quickly dwindling.  Utah is the latest member of the seven-state, four-Canadian-province agreement to announce that it will not have the state authority needed to actually implement a cap-and-trade program in 2012.  Montana, Washington and Oregon will also probably miss the 2012 start date, and Arizona's governor withdrew from the cap-and-trade program entirely in February.   Meanwhile, New Mexico's implementation of regulations may be derailed by a lawsuit from utility and oil and gas companies which contends that the state Environmental Improvement Board cannot regulate greenhouse gases without setting ambient air quality standards.

This leaves only California, British Columbia, Manitoba, Ontario and Quebec as the original members of the agreement who may be on track to take part as planned.   But even California's ability to participate in 2012 might face challenges -- as ClimateWire noted on Monday, a ballot initiative set for November would cancel the state's authorizing statute, A.B. 32, until the unemployment rate falls.

Although California and the Canadian provinces account for 70% of the region's emissions, and WCI is working on a plan to allow other states to join the cap-and-trade program in subsequent years, these defections may cause significant issues for the Initiative.  One important issue to iron out for California's participation is which jurisdiction controls the allowances that cover electricity imports.  Under the WCI framework, electricity imports from outside of the region are counted as part of the cap in the jurisdiction where they are used, but generation originating inside the region is assigned to the generating facility.  This could create a large problem for California, which imports nearly half of its electricity from neighboring states.

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What will happen to state and regional energy and carbon-related regulations if (perhaps when) federal climate legislation is enacted?  If the Attorneys General of California and 6 New England and Mid-Atlantic states have anything to say about it, very little.  

As E&E reported last night, the Attorneys General of Massachusetts, Delaware, Maine, Maryland, Rhode Island, Vermont and California sent a letter this week to Senators Kerry, Graham and Lieberman in which they urge the Senators to incorporate provisions in the climate bill expected to be announced later this month, which save existing state initiatives.  Drawing a parallel to California's emissions standards waiver under the Clean Air Act, they urge coexisting federal and State authority to spur energy independence and reduce global warming pollution.

Some suggestions make a lot of sense for both regulators and the regulated community: allowing time for industries participating in regional programs to transition to federal programs, providing for an exchange of RGGI allowances, and maintaining EPA's authority under the Clean Air Act to regulate in the absence of functional federal programs created by new legislation could all allow the transition between programs to flow more smoothly. 

However, their call to keep cap-and-trade initiatives like RGGI viable in the midst of federal cap-and-trade, and at most impose only a temporary moratorium for a fixed period of time, seems more like a land grab than good policy.  The AGs say it would provide a valuable incentive to ensure rigorous implementation and enforcement of the federal program.  No. Overlapping cap-and-trade programs would only create a mess.  A nationwide and comprehensive cap-and-trade program is clearly preferable, for both the economy and achieving reductions in carbon dioxide emissions. 

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Now that health care legislation has passed, the question is whether passage of the health care bill will unleash a cascade of other legislation, including a climate change bill, or whether Congress will be so exhausted and so polarized that nothing else will happen. I lean to the former position, but only time will tell. One positive indication was Senator Graham’s statement that, notwithstanding his views on the health care bill, he will continue to work towards passage of a climate change bill. Another shout out seems in order for Senator Graham.

The second positive indicator is the chorus of concern recently voiced by environmental groups about the direction in which climate legislation seems to be heading. If the Center for Biological Diversity is expressing grave concern, I suspect that negotiations are probably about where they need to be for a bill to pass. The concern expressed most recently by environmental groups is that the Senate negotiations appear to be headed towards inclusion of language preempting both state regulation and EPA regulation under existing Clean Air Act authority – both of which seem to me to be no-brainers. 

I’m sure that the CBD truly is appalled at the idea of preemption; I hope that the more mainstream environmental groups are more practical and will simply use their opposition as a bargaining chip. While I’m not really in the prognostication business, I’d be about willing to guarantee that there won’t be a bill unless there is preemption language.

Another issue that’s jumped up on the radar screen is off-shore drilling, with a number of Senators indicating that it has to be part of a bill, while 10 Democrats have written to Senators Kerry, Graham, and Lieberman indicating that they may not be able to support a climate change bill that provided for increased off-shore drilling.

Finally, E&E Daily reported that Obama staffers, including Carol Browner, met with Senate Democrats yesterday to discuss ways to move Senate legislation in April. The report indicates that Kerry, Graham, and Lieberman hope to draft a bill in the next few weeks. I don’t think we’re going to see the Senate pass a bill any time soon, but it does look as though things are starting to move.

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Since I did a post earlier today indicating the cap-and-trade legislation is unlikely to become law in the near term, it’s only fair that I also do a post on efforts by Senators Kerry, Graham, and Lieberman to resuscitate the legislation. The bill's prospects are too uncertain to spend too much time on the details. In short, it would include a phased-in approach to regulation, starting with the biggest emitters, such as utilities, combined with a carbon tax on transportation fuels that has been supported by several major oil companies.

To me, the most notable statements come from Senator Graham, the only Republican in the gang of three. Senator Graham has turned out to be one of the more intriguing and less predictable members of Congress in recent years. This may have its pluses and minuses and I have no idea whether he can bring any GOP support along, but you have to sit up and take notice when a Republican says

Cap and trade as we know it is dead, but the issue of cleaning up the air and energy independence should not die -- and you will never have energy independence without pricing carbon.

Of course, he’s right. The sad thing is that the rest of his party has so demonized any and all taxes that no Democrat could possibly say something like this – and many of the distortions in the various bills we’ve seen to date have resulted from strenuous efforts to avoid having consumers see any price signals about the cost of carbon emissions.

Keep sayin’ it, Brother Graham.

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The uncertainty surrounding EPA regulation of GHG emissions under existing Clean Air Act authority was driven home for me last week when the same conference resulted in two diametrically opposed headlines in the trade press. Regarding a forum held by the International Emissions Trading Association, the Daily Environmental Reporter headline was “Existing Law Too Inflexible to Accommodate Market-Based Emissions Cuts, Executives Say.” Over at ClimateWire, the headline was “Some Companies Want EPA to Establish a CO2 Cap-and-trade System.” 

Of course, in fairness to the two publications, both headlines are true – and that’s the problem with the current EPA efforts. Notwithstanding current efforts in Congress to preclude EPA regulations, the endangerment finding seems almost certain to withstand legal challenge. Thus, GHGs will be regulated. Almost everyone wants that regulation to be in the form of a cap-and-trade program, but the last time EPA tried that without explicit Congressional authority, it was shot down in the courts. This may be why the Daily Environment Report story indicated that Vickie Patton of EDF had “pleaded” with executives to support cap-and-trade legislation.

At this point, the most likely near-term outcome appears to be no federal cap-and-trade legislation, and a stripped-down EPA regulatory program that would only apply to really large emitters, so that the inefficiencies inherent in the facility-specific BACT approach won’t appear too unreasonable, because the only people complaining about it will be some very unpopular polluters and all of my economist friends.

Or, as the Stones might have said in their more cynical moments:  Not only can’t you get what you want, but you can’t even get what you need.

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Given the stories this week of continuing efforts in Congress to preclude EPA from regulating GHGs under existing Clean Air Act authority, I couldn’t resist this headline. 

The first story is that three House members, including two Democrats (House Agriculture Committee Chair Collin Peterson and Missouri Rep. Ike Skelton) have followed the lead of the Senate – where there are also Democratic sponsors – and introduced legislation preventing EPA regulation. According to Representative Skelton, the bill would “get the EPA under control.”

In light of the efforts in Congress, it just seemed too perfect not to note that EPA’s Assistant Administrator for Air, Gina McCarthy – never one to mince words – was quoted in GreenWire today as saying that

We are furiously ensuring that we get the light-duty vehicle out and ready in March…. There is no hesitation about that. It will be happening.

I don’t doubt that EPA is working furiously to get the rule done, particularly since President Obama has acknowledged that a cap-and-trade bill might not get passed this year. Whether EPA is actually furious, I don’t know. It does appear that some members of Congress may be furious in March if EPA goes ahead and issues the rule. Stay tuned.

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Last month, I noted with some trepidation that EPA Administrator Jackson had stated that "I don't believe this is an either-or proposition," referring to the possibility that there could be both climate legislation and EPA regulation of GHGs under existing EPA authority. Today, it’s looking more like a neither-nor proposition.

First, with respect to the prospects for climate change legislation, Senator Gregg was quoted in ClimateWire as saying that “the chance of a global warming law passing this year was ‘zero to negative 10 percent.’" Whether Senator Gregg has the odds pegged exactly right, legislation certainly seems less likely than was thought even a month ago, as health care legislation struggles and Scott Brown (R. Mass.) takes office.

At the same time, Senator Murkowski is moving forward with a resolution to disapprove EPA’s endangerment finding, in order to preclude EPA regulation under existing authority. While binding Congressional action to preclude EPA regulation is unlikely, because it would require approval by President Obama, Senate action does not appear out of the question at this point, given that Senator Murkowski has obtained three Democratic co-sponsors of the resolution, Senators Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-Ark.), Ben Nelson (D-Neb.) and Mary Landrieu (D-La.). A Senate vote in favor might not preclude EPA regulation without House and Presidential concurrence, but it’s hard to see how such a vote wouldn’t be a further black eye for the administration.

The situation certainly seems to warrant ClimateWire’s lede that “Climate chaos reigned on Capitol Hill yesterday.” Unfortunately, as I have noted previously, uncertainty is not really to anyone’s benefit. Does anyone doubt that, in the longer run, there will be some kind of climate regulation in the U.S.? How are regulated entities supposed to do cost-effective planning for such regulation in the face of this kind of uncertainty?

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As anyone not hiding under a rock has by now probably realized, EPA officially announced Monday that it has concluded that GHG from human activity threaten public health and the environment. Since the announcement was not exactly a surprise, the question remains what impact it will have.

In the short run, the timing certainly seems intended to coincide with the Copenhagen talks and help to demonstrate to other nations that the U.S. is taking concrete steps to address climate change. We’ll see shortly how successful the endangerment finding is in that respect.

Since I spend most of my time down in the trenches, I’m more concerned with the impact of the endangerment finding on the domestic front. There are really three fronts here:

Litigation – If there was any suspense regarding whether anyone would challenge the endangerment finding, such suspense was quickly relieved by an announcement from the Competitive Enterprise Institute that it would indeed sue. CEI’s press release stated that the global warming “models are about to sink under the growing weight of evidence that they are fabrications.” Uphill battle barely begins to describe the likelihood that CEI wins that case.

Prospects for Cap-and-Trade Legislation – Notwithstanding Administrator Jackson’s protestations to the contrary, it’s hard not to see the announcement as a further prod to Congress to get moving, particularly since the Administration keeps saying that it would prefer enactment of a cap-and-trade bill. Even so, however, some members of Congress indicated that the announcement would have little impact, because the endangerment finding was expected and thus adds little new.

EPA Development of Regulations – EPA is moving forward with regulatory development, though Administrator Jackson gave no time line for when stationary source regulations would be promulgated. There was an indication that EPA would issue BACT guidance in advance of issuing NSR regulations. Notwithstanding the promise of BACT guidance, it appears that states are not ready for the brave new world of using the NSR program to regulate GHGs. ClimateWire reported that Bill Becker, executive director of the National Association of Clean Air Agencies, believes that states will have hard time getting ready to process stationary source permits by March.

I actually found the biggest take-away from the announcement to be the Administrator’s statement that she wanted EPA regulations that would be complementary to new legislation. "I don't believe this is an either-or proposition," ClimateWire reported her saying. 

Uh-oh. 

I thought that the deal had always been that legislation would substitute for regulation under the existing CAA. Otherwise, what do the administration’s statements that it would prefer legislation to regulation mean?   I’m having difficulty imagining a world with both a cap-and-trade program and NSR regulation of GHGs.

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The states participating in the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI) announced the results of their 6^th quarterly auction, held on December 2^nd, which brought in the lowest prices for carbon dioxide (CO₂) allowances yet. Wednesday’s auction also marks the first time that RGGI allowances offered for sale outnumbered demand. Only 1.6 million of the roughly 2.1 million allowances for the 2012 vintage sold at RGGI’s required price floor of $1.86. Depending on each state’s regulations, these unsold allowances may be sold in future auctions, or a state may choose to retire them.  Although retirement this early in the game is a somewhat remote possibility, it will be interesting to see whether this will have an impact in RGGI's second compliance period, 2012-2015. 

Prices for the nearly 28.6 million 2009 vintage allowances sold fell from the September auction’s clearing price of $2.19 to $2.05, down significantly from June’s clearing price of $3.23. Despite these low prices, the number of participants in the 2009 vintage auction actually increased significantly: 62 entities, compared to 46 who participated in September’s auction. 

In the 2012 vintage offering, however, the quantity of allowances for which bids were submitted decreased 32% from September, resulting in bids for only 74% of the supply of 2012 allowances offered for sale. As in September’s auction, no non-compliance entities (businesses or persons not regulated under RGGI) participated in the 2012 vintage auction.  In comparison, non-compliance entities submitted 38% of the bids for 2012 allowances in the 4^th RGGI auction, back in June. 

The range of bid prices in the 6^th auction, not surprisingly, was also the lowest that RGGI, Inc. has reported. Bid prices for the 2009 vintage allowances ranged from the minimum clearing price of $1.86 to just $5.00, down from a high of $12.00 in the June and September auctions,  while bid prices for the 2012 vintage allowances topped out at $2.41, down significantly from March’s high bid price of $4.40.

As we said after prices fell in September’s auctions, the national (and international) efforts toward developing carbon regulation that would preempt RGGI are likely having an impact on bidders’ perceptions of RGGI’s future. Combined with additional reports that the RGGI allowance pool is over-funded, these low prices are not too surprising, and will likely continue. 

Nonetheless, RGGI is still bringing in a lot of money. The report highlights that the RGGI program has brought in more than $494.4 million over the last 15 months of auctions for investment in a state-specific programs that are targeted to reducing emissions, building the clean energy economy, and saving consumers money. If you’re interested in where the funds are going in your state, check out RGGI’s convenient summary.

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 The House of Representatives narrowly passed H.R. 2454, the American Clean Energy and Security Act of 2009 by a vote of 219-212 on Friday, June 26.  The bill, the first piece of major legislation on global warming that has passed either house of Congress, is 1,428 pages long, and includes 5 titles covering everything from renewable energy and efficiency to adaptation and transitioning to a clean energy economy.  While it retains many key concepts from the draft introduced by Representatives Henry Waxman and Edward Markey, some of revisions and additions that ensured its passage were significant and have generated controversy as the sponsors made certain compromises in order to reach a majority. 

Attention now turns to the Senate, which, according to statements by key committee members and Obama Administration officials, will likely not reach a vote on global warming legislation until this fall, at the earliest.  Should the Bill fail to pass in the Senate, greenhouse gas emissions may still be regulated through other methods, such as state and regional climate change initiatives and possibly direct regulation by the EPA through the Clean Air Act, under its endangerment finding.

For more details on the bill and an in depth analysis of the Cap-and-Trade title, please take a look at our recent client alert. 

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According to a quote from House Energy and Commerce Chairman Henry Waxman in an E&E article this morning, the Waxman-Markey bill could reach a floor vote inside of 3 weeks.  Speaker Pelosi had set a deadline of next Friday, June 19, for the 8 House Committees still evaluating HR 2454 to conclude their review, but has not indicated when Democrats will bring the legislation to the House floor.  Waxman said yesterday that he wants debate to begin on June 22 and the bill to go to a vote before the July Fourth recess -- "I think the speaker and the majority leader and the administration agree with that timing, and we're going to do all we can to stick to it because after we come back from the July Fourth recess, it is health care for the rest of the month."

The tension in scheduling the Administration's dual priorities of energy and health care seems to be an issue.  Ways & Means Chairman Charles Rangel reported that in the Democratic committee members' meeting with the President this week , the President did not give lawmakers a specific deadline for sending him a climate bill -- a marked contrast with the firm deadline for health care legislation.  Rangel told reporters that in order to concentrate on both climate and health care, the Ways & Means Committee might skip markup of the climate bill and instead work out their concerns with Chairman Waxman before a floor vote or during floor vote, via amendments.

What the bill will look like when when it reaches the floor is still under discussion.  One committee expected to offer substantial amendments on hot-button issues like biofuels and offsets is the House Agriculture Committee.   While the offsets debate may be even more heated than that for the allocation of credits, biofuels may be the first amendment offered.  As Climate Wire reported Wednesday, House Agriculture Committee members are considering a legislative fix for EPA's proposed regulation of biofuels.  At EPA's public hearing on the recent proposal, which involves the requirement of a 100-year long lifecycle analysis for biofuels international impact, testimony from both biofuel advocates and environmentalists urged changes.  Particularly since the lifecycle emissions of petroleum production are not evaluated in the same way, calculation of biofuels' carbon footprints will have a huge impact on whether the Congressional mandate to ramp up biofuel use to 36 billion gallons a year by 2022 can be met. 

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Congressmen Waxman and Markey today released their proposal for allocating allowances under a cap-and-trade program. At least 15 different categories of entities will receive a piece of the allowance pie. Here’s the list:

Local Distribution Companies –                           30%

Merchant Coal and PPAs –                                      5%    

Natural Gas Distribution Companies –                   9%

States (for home heating oil users) –                     1.5%

Low/moderate income households –                   15%

Energy intensive / trade-exposed industries –    15%

Domestic oil refiners –                                          2%                                                     

Carbon capture / sequestration –                          2%    

Renewable Energy / energy efficiency –             10%

Advanced automobile technology –                       3%

Research and development –                                1%

Tropical deforestation / offsets –                         5%

Domestic adaption –                                             2%

International adaptation/technology transfer –    2%

Worker assistance / job training –                        0.5%

If you think that this adds to more than 100%, you are correct, though it is also true that these numbers vary over time. Most significantly, the first four items above would phase out in the period from 2026.

What’s notable here? The total amount of allowances allocated to LDCs and merchant generators is about what was expected, but of that 35%, the merchant generators may have expected to get more than they did.  We’ll see how the coal industry responds to this proposal. 

The phase-out period is almost certainly more generous than environmentalists expected or hoped for, and is evidence that the vote counters did not believe that the votes would be there for the bill otherwise.  For allowances to utilities and power producers not to begin to phase out until 2026 would be a major victory for the industry.

Obviously, this is not the end; we’ll see over the next few days how the Waxman-Markey proposal is received. The bill itself is scheduled for release later today.

(If the percentages in the columns aren't justified, blame our blog host; I just couldn't make it work and still get this done this century.)

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For those of you who aren’t convinced that Senator Specter’s defection to the Democrats will be the savior of cap and trade legislation, and who are concerned by Senator Durbin’s recent pronouncement that, at this point, there are not 60 votes in the Senate, the question as to how EPA might regulate greenhouse gases under existing authority has taken on greater importance.

The traditional assumption, and the basis for the doom and gloom scenarios projected by the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, has been that EPA would regulate greenhouse gases under the NSR program. While there have been arguments concerning whether EPA has sufficient regulatory flexibility to avoid regulating de minimis sources of greenhouse gases, a new study from NYU proposes an end-run around this question.

The study, entitled “The Road Ahead: EPA’s Options and Obligations For Regulating Greenhouse Gases,” suggests that EPA has authority to establish a cap and trade program under the Clean Air Act without any new statutory authority.  Several of their conclusions are open to question. To name just one, the D.C. Circuit decision striking down the CAIR rule seems to pose a real obstacle to a cap and trade program without specific new statutory authority.

In fairness to the authors, however, the study acknowledges the various difficulties.  The study also does an excellent job identifying the problems inherent in attempting to regulate greenhouse gases through command and control regulation, such as the NSR program, rather than a cap and trade program.  For anyone thinking about EPA’s options at this point, it’s a must read.

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I’ve made a conscious decision not to blog about every twist and turn in the climate change legislation debate. While a blogger can’t quite take a “wake me when it’s over” position, I think that periodic updates are going to be more than sufficient. That being said, in the wake of EPA’s issuance of its endangerment finding last week, a brief update seems appropriate.

What’s clear at this point is that at least everyone in the political center favors a legislative approach and hopes that the endangerment finding will ultimately have no practical impact, other than serving as an incentive for Congress to Act. When not only David Crane, CEO of NRG Energy, and James Rogers, CEO of Duke Energy, but also Fred Krupp of EDF take that approach, it’s clear that the middle ground is firmly occupied.

In the meantime, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce is still taking the position that EPA does not have the discretion to regulate greenhouse gases without regulating relatively small emission sources – with the result being economic and political chaos. 

The interesting question in all this is one that will probably never get discussed – whether EPA’s issuance of regulations concerning greenhouse gases under the current Clean Air would violate the nondelegation doctrine. From a purely legal point of view, that question was basically answered by the Supreme Court decision in Whitman v. American Trucking Associations, in 2001, in which the Supreme Court concluded that the Congressional grant of authority to EPA to issue NAAQS did not violate the nondelegation doctrine.  From a policy perspective, however, it’s difficult to avoid the issue.  

When Fred Krupp says that Congress is “better suited … to work out the details than EPA,” he is fundamentally making the point that these are legislative decisions and it is appropriate that they be made by our elected legislators. In their heart of hearts, would even the most vociferous advocates of the need to regulate greenhouse gases as soon as possible say that these are decisions that should be made be EPA, rather than Congress?  Only if they are willing to admit that they don’t believe in our current version of representative democracy.

It’s unclear where this will all end up, but the prognosticator almost most certain to be correct has to be former EPA depute associate administrator Jason Burnett, who helped draft EPA’s original endangerment filing that the Bush administration declined to issue. As Burnett acknowledged, “there’s no question … that there will be some unintended consequences.” 

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Now that the initial euphoria following the introduction of the Waxman-Markey climate change bill  has passed, this past week may have reminded supporters of climate change legislation just how difficult it will be and what sort of compromises may be necessary to get it done. First, Greenwire reported again on the difficulty that senators and representatives from coal states will have supporting climate legislation that would increase electricity rates. This was consistent with the recent Senate action that seemingly put the final nail in the coffin on the idea of using the budget process as a vehicle for climate legislation in the Senate (in order to avoid the threat of a filibuster).

Last Thursday, the Obama Administration seemed to acknowledge this reality. White House spokesman Benjamin LaBolt, while stating that the Administration’s goal remains a cap-and-trade program in which all allowances are auctioned, rather than simply allocated to existing emitters, noted that Congress was looking at a number of options and stated that the Administration “will be flexible” in order to get a bill passed. Another White House aide, Joseph Aldy also did not rule compromise on the auction issue.

Part of the Administration’s concern has to be placating the so-called Gang of 16, a group of moderate Senators. It is difficult to imagine climate change legislation being enacted without the support of this group, which includes several senators most people would think of as reliable votes for the Democratic leadership.

The Administration faces a difficult balancing act on this issue. If it signals too early and too strongly a willingness to compromise, that could be perceived as a sign of weakness and the debate could shift too far—from the Administration’s perspective—toward allocating allowances, rather than auctioning them. On the other hand, if the Administration sticks too firmly to the auction approach, it risks losing credibility and influence, as Congress may simply develop legislation without regard to the White House. If I were a betting man, I’d still assume that climate legislation will include an auction, but the percentages may start out relatively low (perhaps with a mechanism to increase that percentage over time).

This post also appeared on the Environmental Protection website, an organization that provides pollution and waste treatment solutions for environmental professionals.

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 As we mentioned yesterday, the discussion draft of the Waxman-Markey “American Clean Energy and Security Act of 2009” which was released on Tuesday is notable both for what it includes and the significant portions it leaves to be decided at a later date. 

In summary, the bill contains four titles:

1) a “clean energy” title, which promotes renewable energy through a portfolio standard of 6% in 2012 rising to 25% by 2025, additional funding for carbon capture and sequestration, a low-carbon transportation fuel standard, and authorization for federal agencies to enter into long-term contracts with renewable energy providers;

2) an “energy efficiency” title, which calls for a nationwide building efficiency code, and directs EPA to set emission standards for locomotives, marine vessels and non-road sources;

3) a “global warming” title, which specifies that greenhouse gases are not to be treated as criteria pollutants or regulated in new source review under the Clean Air Act (the authorities currently viewed to be EPA’s best tools in regulating greenhouse gases), lays out up to 83% cuts in greenhouse gas emissions from 2005 levels by 2050 and creates the framework for a cap-and-trade auction system to be overseen in part by FERC, but does not specify how allowances would be allocated or auctioned, nor how auction proceeds would be spent, other than giving a portion to preventing international deforestation; and

4) a “transitioning” title which establishes a new council within NOAA to prepare an adaptation plan and fund, but does not provide details on where the funds come from, and lays out various programs creating release valves to be triggered by increasing prices, but again withholds critical details, such as how the programs will provide assistance to consumers.

After the jump, we provide more detail about Title 3, the Global Warming section.

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As we noted last week, President Obama’s budget includes revenue from auctioning 100% of allowances under a cap-and-trade system. ClimateWire today reports two competing versions of the prospects for a 100% auction approach. First, the Southern Alliance for Clean Energy signed up a number of economists, including Franklin Fisher of MIT, in support of the President’s plan to auction all allowances from the get-go. Part of the argument reflects environmental justice concerns, stemming from the recognition that a cap-and-trade program will increase utility costs. The Southern Alliance is expecting that some of the auction proceeds would be rebated back to low-income consumers, thus cushioning that blow.

As ClimateWire notes, the U.S. Climate Action Partnership, which includes the NRDC, EDF, and the Nature Conservancy, has already lined up behind a plan that would allocate up to 40% of allowances to industry at the beginning of the program, with the amount of allocated allowances decreasing to zero over time.

In the same issue, ClimateWire reported that Abyd Karmali, the head of carbon emissions for Merrill Lynch, has concluded that the President’s proposal won’t fly in today’s economy.  Mr. Karmali predicts that not more than 30% - 50% of allowances will be auctioned initially.

Will the President get his way or is Mr. Karmali correct?  Over the past year, people have underestimated President Obama at their peril.  At the same time, it’s hard to argue with Mr. Karmali’s assessment of the current political climate.  Unless we get some prompt political climate change, I’d guess that a 100% auction approach remains some years away.

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