Law and the Environment : Environmental Lawyer & Attorney : Foley Hoag Law Firm : Boston, Washington D.C.

Seemingly just in time to lend support to the revived idea of a carbon tax that we noted on Monday, an Obama Administration inter-agency workgroup has released a report that attempts to do the critical math necessary to put a price tag on CO₂ emissions.

The report sets out four dollar figures that represent the “social cost of carbon,” or the potential damages associated with not stopping the emissions of each incremental ton of CO₂. The figures, which differ due to the use of different models and discount rates, designed to capture different views about the impact of climate on future decisions, include such damages as changes in net agricultural productivity, human health, property damages from increased flood risk, and the value of ecosystem services. 

Not surprisingly, the numbers vary widely – spanning, in 2007 dollars, from $5 to $65 per ton for 2010 emissions, up to as high as $136 per ton for 2050 emissions.   The report outlines the potential shortcomings of the figures in detail, for instance, the potential impact of the other 5 greenhouse gases included in the EPA’s endangerment finding which have not yet been quantified, and the possibility of  “tipping point” scenarios in climate systems that could drastically change the marginal impact of each ton of emissions.  

However, even given these limitations, this valuation could be a critically important step towards determining such figures for use in policies like a carbon tax.  After all, internalizing the externality and cost to society is one main purpose of a carbon tax.

The more immediate impact of the report may also be significant.  Federal agencies are required, by Executive Order 12866, to assess the costs and benefits of regulations before deciding to act.  These figures will be used to incorporate the social cost of carbon into this analysis for all agency decisions, even those which might only have a small impact on global emissions.  As most federal agency decisions will have some impact on global emissions, even if only marginal, adding in the cost of CO₂ could have wide-ranging implications.

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Since I did a post earlier today indicating the cap-and-trade legislation is unlikely to become law in the near term, it’s only fair that I also do a post on efforts by Senators Kerry, Graham, and Lieberman to resuscitate the legislation. The bill's prospects are too uncertain to spend too much time on the details. In short, it would include a phased-in approach to regulation, starting with the biggest emitters, such as utilities, combined with a carbon tax on transportation fuels that has been supported by several major oil companies.

To me, the most notable statements come from Senator Graham, the only Republican in the gang of three. Senator Graham has turned out to be one of the more intriguing and less predictable members of Congress in recent years. This may have its pluses and minuses and I have no idea whether he can bring any GOP support along, but you have to sit up and take notice when a Republican says

Cap and trade as we know it is dead, but the issue of cleaning up the air and energy independence should not die -- and you will never have energy independence without pricing carbon.

Of course, he’s right. The sad thing is that the rest of his party has so demonized any and all taxes that no Democrat could possibly say something like this – and many of the distortions in the various bills we’ve seen to date have resulted from strenuous efforts to avoid having consumers see any price signals about the cost of carbon emissions.

Keep sayin’ it, Brother Graham.

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As Congress considers approaches to climate change legislation, with pragmatists seeming generally to support a cap and trade system, while purists support a carbon tax, the Commonwealth of Massachusetts has now weighed in with a new approach: How about both?

Although Massachusetts dithered a bit at the end of the Romney administration, it rejoined the Regional Greenhouse Gas Emission under Governor Patrick in time to participate in the first auction under the RGGI cap and trade program. Last week, the Governor balanced the scales, announcing a proposal for a 19-cent increase in the gas tax. Now, to be fair to the Governor, the gas tax increase is not being touted as a carbon tax. Moreover, there is no doubt that the Commonwealth has a gaping hole in its infrastructure budget – to the tune of $15 billion to $19 billion over the next 20 years, according to the Findings of the Transportation Finance Commission. Indeed, the true need to improve the Commonwealth’s infrastructure has led development interests to support a gas tax increase for some time now.

Nonetheless, a tax is a tax, and an increase in the size of the gas tax will inevitably have some impact on vehicle miles traveled. Just as anti-smoking advocates view cigarette taxes, environmentalists will applaud this move either way. It will almost certainly decrease VMT, thus decreasing greenhouse gas emissions. At the same time, because people will still drive, the revenue from the tax will facilitate important infrastructure spending, including various transit projects that environmentalists have long supported. In fact, even aside from the gas tax itself and the funding of mass transit, the Governor’s announcement included provisions to make the Commonwealth’s transportation infrastructure more green and to reduce transportation-related GHG emissions.

If the Governor can get the tax through the legislature – and use the revenue as he has indicated (as opposed to funding legislators’ pet projects) – and implement the reforms he has described – then maybe we’ll be able to talk about a real win-win situation.

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