Law and the Environment : Environmental Lawyer & Attorney : Foley Hoag Law Firm : Boston, Washington D.C.

Earlier this week, the Southeastern Legal Foundation filed a petition for review of the EPA Endangerment Finding with the District of Columbia Court of Appeals. It’s not really surprising that someone filed suit, but the list of plaintiffs is interesting – though more for who is not on it than who is. There is not a single Fortune 500 company on the list of plaintiffs. Whether that speaks to the larger corporations doubting the merits of the challenge or simply making a strategic decision that it is not worth it to be associated with the litigation, I leave for them to say.

I will say that the likelihood that this challenge succeeds is vanishingly small. Ever since Ethyl Corporation v. EPA, courts have given EPA extraordinarily broad discretion when regulating on “the frontiers of scientific knowledge.” Whatever concerns dissenters may have about climate change science, I think it is pretty clear that EPA has a stronger record to support the Endangerment Finding than it had in Ethyl Corporation.

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Last month, I noted with some trepidation that EPA Administrator Jackson had stated that "I don't believe this is an either-or proposition," referring to the possibility that there could be both climate legislation and EPA regulation of GHGs under existing EPA authority. Today, it’s looking more like a neither-nor proposition.

First, with respect to the prospects for climate change legislation, Senator Gregg was quoted in ClimateWire as saying that “the chance of a global warming law passing this year was ‘zero to negative 10 percent.’" Whether Senator Gregg has the odds pegged exactly right, legislation certainly seems less likely than was thought even a month ago, as health care legislation struggles and Scott Brown (R. Mass.) takes office.

At the same time, Senator Murkowski is moving forward with a resolution to disapprove EPA’s endangerment finding, in order to preclude EPA regulation under existing authority. While binding Congressional action to preclude EPA regulation is unlikely, because it would require approval by President Obama, Senate action does not appear out of the question at this point, given that Senator Murkowski has obtained three Democratic co-sponsors of the resolution, Senators Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-Ark.), Ben Nelson (D-Neb.) and Mary Landrieu (D-La.). A Senate vote in favor might not preclude EPA regulation without House and Presidential concurrence, but it’s hard to see how such a vote wouldn’t be a further black eye for the administration.

The situation certainly seems to warrant ClimateWire’s lede that “Climate chaos reigned on Capitol Hill yesterday.” Unfortunately, as I have noted previously, uncertainty is not really to anyone’s benefit. Does anyone doubt that, in the longer run, there will be some kind of climate regulation in the U.S.? How are regulated entities supposed to do cost-effective planning for such regulation in the face of this kind of uncertainty?

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Boston Celtics’ fans know the phrase “fiddlin’ and diddlin.” Well, the Senate continues to fiddle and diddle over climate change legislation. Those who have worked with Gina McCarthy, current EPA air chief, know that she has probably never fiddled or diddled in her life, and I certainly don’t expect her to do so with respect to GHG regulation under existing Clean Air Act authority in the absence of comprehensive legislation. As a result, it now seems likely that EPA will be issuing climate change regulations before any legislation is enacted.

What’s the basis for this conclusion? First, the Senate side:

E&E Daily reported today that Senate leaders are not planning to bring the cap-and-trade bill to the floor until after work on health care and financial regulation bills has been completed.

Senator Webb today “blasted” cap-and-trade legislation as “enormously complex.” (Even with a tailoring rule, good luck eliminating the complexity from EPA regulation under current authority)

So, things aren’t exactly cooking with gas on the legislation front. What’s up at EPA?

Last week, EPA sent the endangerment rule to OMB for final review

EPA’s stakeholder group on the tailoring rule has been hard at work at work and expects to have a preliminary report out by the end of the year. The Daily Environment Report gives a good flavor of the complexities faced by this project, but there is no question that the group and EPA are moving forward.

The bottom line is that unless a health care bill passes soon, and unless passage relieves a bottleneck in the legislative pipeline, we will all be participating in the experiment to see if EPA can make climate change regulation work under existing CAA authority. 

May you live in interesting times.

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The silence from Congress recently concerning climate change legislation has been deafening. The continued health care debate does not bode well for early passage of the Waxman-Markey bill. Meanwhile, EPA is not sitting on its hands.

Daily Environment Report noted last week that EPA has sent to the OMB a proposal to reverse the Agency’s policy that CO₂ is not a pollutant subject to the PSD provisions of the Clean Air Act. Also last week, Greenwire reported that: “As Hill debate flounders, EPA plows ahead on emissions rules.” [And for those of you who can’t get enough of the debate between “founder” and “flounder”, take a look here.] The Greenwire story reports that EPA is moving ahead on rules governing emissions of GHGs from automobiles and large stationary sources.

The biggest debate continues to be whether EPA has legal authority to exempt small sources of CO₂ (probably those emitting less than 25,000 tons per year) from PSD rules. Certainly, the D.C. Circuit’s treatment of EPA’s CAIR rule should give everyone pause that the Court will approve rules that don’t seem to have authority in the CAA, just because everyone thinks that the rules would be good public policy. The strongest argument in support of the exemption – or at least the one mentioned most often – is simply that no one would challenge such a rule, because it would obviously be such a good idea. I’m skeptical. Major sources who want to torpedo the entire rule might easily challenge such an exemption.

I hate to sound like a broken record, but I keep coming back to a slightly different question: Who in their right mind would prefer EPA rules under current CAA authority to comprehensive legislation, however imperfect the legislation might be? Those assessing the merits of legislation can’t compare it to the status quo, because, as these recent moves by EPA demonstrate, the status quo cannot hold for long. The comparison must therefore be between the Waxman-Markey bill and the world as it will be once EPA regulates under existing authority.

It’s looking more and more likely that Congress may not have sufficient momentum to pass legislation until the reality of EPA regulation becomes manifest. I’m not looking forward to that.

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According to an article by BNA published this morning, EPA may soon act to apply the prevention of significant deterioration (PSD) provisions of the Clean Air Act to facilities that emit more than 25,000 tons of carbon dioxide annually.  Presumably, EPA's action is either an effort to exert leverage on Congress to pass pending climate change legislation or to ensure that GHG are regulated in the event that legislation doesn't pass -- or both.  

Under the Clean Air Act, PSD applies to major new sources, which are defined by their emissions level -- for pollutants in identified industrial sources categories, the threshold is 100 tons per year, while for others it is 250 tons per year.  Assuming that EPA moves forward with its its proposed endangerment finding, the default assumption (and the doomsday scenario presented by the Chamber of Commerce) would be that all GHG sources greater than 250 tons or 100 tons, depending on the source, would be subject to PSD regulations.

As an example, per the General Reporting Protocol's conversion factors, burning only 265.3 tons of coal or 1,173 barrels of fuel oil would produce 250 tons of CO₂.  However, the 25,000 ton threshold is the same used by the EPA in the endangerment finding and its proposed mandatory reporting regulations, so seems likely to be applied here as well.

As we previously noted, the EPA's official current position on this point is still the memorandum issued December 18th by former EPA Administrator Stephen Johnson, which said that since CO₂ is not a regulated pollutant under the Clean Air Act, PSD does not apply.  However, current EPA Administrator Lisa Jackson issued a letter on February 17 stating that the agency will reconsider this position. 

As noted in the BNA article, there is reason to question EPA's authority to exempt small GHG sources from PSD requirements once GHG are found to be pollutants which endanger public health and the environment.  Moreover, EPA's record in defending creative interpretations of the Clean Air Act -- even where they are generally supported, such as in the CAIR regulations -- has not been sterling.  

The entire debate is likely to get messier before it is resolved. 

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This morning, EPA issued a proposed finding that greenhouse gasses contribute to air pollution and may endanger public health or welfare. The proposed finding comes almost exactly two years after the Supreme Court, in Massachusetts v. EPA, ordered the agency to examine whether emissions linked to climate change should be curbed under the Clean Air Act, and marks a major shift in the federal government's approach to global warming.

The finding, which now moves to a 60-day public comment period, identifies the six greenhouse gases that pose a potential threat as a set, a tactic which we discussed the potential impact of a few weeks ago. 

Overall, the proposed finding is very similar to the language released in March. It concludes that “in both magnitude and probability, climate change is an enormous problem. The greenhouse gases that are responsible for it endanger public health and welfare within the meaning of the Clean Air Act.”

Some interesting highlights of the finding include:

• Environmental justice: As the EPA press release states, “in proposing the finding, Administrator Jackson took into account the disproportionate impact climate change has on the health of certain segments of the population, such as the poor, the very young, the elderly, those already in poor health, the disabled, those living alone and/or indigenous populations dependent on one or a few resources.”
• National Security: As the EPA press release phrased it, “Escalating violence in destabilized regions can be incited and fomented by an increasing scarcity of resources – including water. This lack of resources, driven by climate change patterns, then drives massive migration to more stabilized regions of the world.” 
• Vehicles: By including a "cause or contribute" finding for cars, the proposed finding implies that not only are greenhouse gases dangerous in general, but that such emissions from cars and trucks are reasonably likely to contribute to climate change

The finding does not include any proposed regulations.  However, while release of the finding is a huge development, it still seems likely that the Obama Administration will hold off on regulations in favor of a legislative solution. As the Washington Post reported today, at the Aspen Environment Forum last month, Administrator Jackson emphasized that "the best solution, and I believe this in my heart, is to work with Congress to form and pass comprehensive legislation to deal with climate change.” 

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Greenwire reported yesterday that EPA plans to issue its endangerment finding on emissions of greenhouses gases, in response to Massachusetts v. EPA, by the end of April. Greenwire also released EPA’s internal presentation regarding its recommendation to the Administrator.

Although EPA’s anticipated decision is not a surprise, it is still noteworthy. Among the highlights:

• The finding will conclude that greenhouse gas emissions endanger public health (the proposed endangerment finding that the Bush administration EPA had prepared, but then withdrew, was limited to public welfare issues.
• The finding will apparently note that there are environmental justice implications associated with climate change. This is particularly interesting, given that there is also concern that there are equity issues associated with the likely responses to climate change – Warren Buffett this week described a cap-and-trade plan has as a “regressive tax.”
• EPA’s preferred option at this point is to base the endangerment finding on identifying the entire group of GHG as the “air pollutants” that cause the endangerment. One specific rationale is that doing so will facilitate flexibility in setting standards for these pollutants. In other words, if GHG are grouped together, EPA will be able to propose a regulatory program that will allow netting and offsets among the different GHGs. 

Other than the nod to regulatory flexibility provided by grouping GHGs, EPA has not tipped its hand regarding the nature of any regulatory regime for GHGs, let alone when it might be able to propose and finalize such regulations. Doing so remains a gargantuan task. 

Moreover, while EPA is clearly committed to addressing this issue, if one believes the statements of Congressional committee chairs to the effect that climate change legislation will get done promptly, there is a certain logic to waiting for such direct legislative authority. On the other hand, fear of what EPA may do remains part of the calculus on Capital Hill, so EPA may decide to move forward aggressively with regulatory development under current Clean Air Act authority simply in order to keep pressure on Congress. 

It’s going to be a busy – and interesting – year.

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