Is EPA Treading On Thin Ice With Its Climate Change Regulations?

On a day when ClimateWire reported that thousands of walruses are stuck on land because their usual summer home – sea ice – has disappeared, I’m beginning to wonder whether EPA’s stationary source GHG rules are similarly at risk. It may not be difficult for EPA to brush off a fairly over the top letter from Texas which basically asked EPA “What part of ‘hell no” don’t you understand?”

However, today Greenwire reports that Governor Freudenthal of Wyoming – a Democrat – is asking EPA to defer enforcement of GHG stationary source regulation. So is Ben Grumbles, head of the Arizona Department of Environmental Quality. Grumbles may be a Republican, but he was head of the water office under the Bush EPA, so he has to have some idea of the legal pressure for EPA to regulate GHGs following Massachusetts v. EPA

In addition to these latest requests from the states, ClimateWire had a separate story today which noted that Senate efforts to bar EPA from regulating GHG may still be alive and that Democrat Senators Nelson and Dorgan may support attaching the legislation to the EPA appropriations bill. Readers of this blog know that I am a fan of Senator Graham’s willingness to consider climate legislation, but EPA has to be worried if it is counting on Senator Graham’s prediction that the amendment will fail.

I have long said that EPA’s regulations are here to stay, because they are not only defensible, they are - in some form, at least - pretty much mandated by Massachusetts v. EPA. However, where the prevailing metaphor for the November elections is that of a GOP tsunami, one has to wonder whether there is a realistic possibility that, one way or another, EPA regulation of GHG under existing authority could be subject to significant delay.

Kerry Lieberman Is Here: Now What?

So, Kerry Lieberman (Graham?), also known as the American Power Act, is here. What does it mean?

My immediate reaction is that, in a big picture sense, they got it just about right. The fundamental issue, which was previously acknowledged by Senator Graham (can we start calling him “he who must not be named?”), is that we’re not going to solve the energy independence or climate change problems unless we put a price on carbon. This bill does that.

Frankly, the rest of the issues really only matter either to particularly constituencies or, as a related concern, to particular members of Congress. What are some of these other issues and how would they be handled in this bill? We’ll be getting a more detailed client alert out shortly, and if you can't wait, you can review the short summary or the section by section analysis, but here’s the very quick version.

Basic cap-and-trade provisions –

Goal is to reduce CO2e by 4.75 percent of 2005 levels by 2013 and 83% by 2050, with interim targets in 2020 and 2030

EPA administrator will set allowance numbers to reach those targets

Only facilities emitting >25,000 tpy CO2e will be subject to the program

Generating facilities are subject to the program in 2013; manufacturing facilities will not be subject until 2016.

Initial price floor of $12/ton and price ceiling of $25/ton

Limits on who can participate in the carbon market to avoid market manipulation

Allowances used primarily to cushion consumers from energy price increases, but also to support various industries

Includes a “WTO-consistent border adjustment mechanism.” In the absence of a global agreement, tariffs will be imposed on countries without similar GHG controls

Nuclear power – lots of help for the nuclear industry

Off-shore drilling – Provides substantial revenue sharing to certain coastal states, but allows states to prohibit leasing within 75 miles of their coastline

Coal – significant support for carbon capture and sequestration

Renewable energy – Does not include a national renewable energy standard, or RES, though does provide for federal assistance to encourage development of renewable energy technology

Preemption – preempts state cap-and-trade programs, but not other state regulation of GHG. Precludes EPA regulation:

No listing of GHG as criteria pollutants based on climate change impacts

No listing as hazardous air pollutants based on climate change impacts

Limitation – but not complete preemption – of GHG regulation under existing NSR authority

Don’t yell at me if this list does not include your favorite provision. This is a blog, not a treatise. As to the big political picture, I still think that, if Senator Graham can be brought back on board, there is a reasonable chance that this bill passes. If not, then I’m pretty skeptical. 

Patchwork or Preemption, Redux

Yesterday, Senator Lieberman (I -CT) confirmed that the climate bill that he, Senator Kerry (D-MA) and Senator Graham (R-SC) plan to announce next week will include preemption of state and federal initiatives, including EPA's Clean Air Act authority.  Leaving aside the potential in his statement for the bill to also preempt state renewable energy and efficiency programs, the goal of predictability and one nationwide cap-and-trade system is an approach that we endorsed a few weeks ago, and one that H.R. 2454 also contained, albeit with a 5 year moratorium, rather than a complete preemptive ban.

But this stance on preemption is drawing fire from both sides of the aisle: ClimateWire reports that Senator Whitehouse (D-RI) indicated he might vote against the climate bill if it shuts down programs like RGGI; while Senator Voinovich (R-Ohio) yesterday circulated a proposed amendment to the yet-to-be-seen bill that declares itself the "sole and exclusive authority for regulation of... or consideration of any greenhouse gas."  As such, the amendment would preempt all federal actions relating to greenhouse gas emissions under laws as diverse as the Endangered Species Act, Clean Water Act, and even NEPA.  It would also prohibit public nuisance litigation related to climate change, and states from regulating GHGs in any way, even uncontroversial utility-based efficiency programs. 
 
Clearly Senator Voinovich's proposal goes too far.  State-run programs are critically important in setting policies and objectives that fit with the economy and needs of individual states. Our country is too large and diverse to have only one bill truly fit all.
 
One potential compromise position is highlighted in a letter that Senator Whitehouse and 13 other Senators sent to Sens. Kerry, Graham and Lieberman a few weeks ago, outlining their concerns about broad preemption in the Senate bill.  One of their chief concerns: losing the money that RGGI has generated for states' use in funding clean energy, energy efficiency, and low-income energy support programs.  The letter speaks out against preemption of state-based cap-and-trade programs, but only if such preemption fails to ensure equity for the states that have taken early action.  Sitting in one of the RGGI states, this seems like a real concern to me. Perhaps if the federal program were to allocate a portion of allowances directly to the states for sale at auction to fund such programs, or, once the expected national auctions ramp up, funnel some of the money to states for their own initiatives, such concerns could be addressed.

 

Another Climate Update: Are Moderates Coming Aboard?

As Senators Kerry, Lieberman, and Graham get ready to release their version of a climate bill, negotiations with moderate Democrats are heating up. Ten Democrats, apparently let by Sherrod Brown and Debbie Stabenow released a letter outlining what they call “key provisions for a manufacturing” package as part of an overall bill. Here are some highlights the Senators' wish list:

Investments in clean energy manufacturing and low carbon industrial technologies.

Ensuring law energy costs for manufacturers, including a “firm price collar”

A phase-in for regulation of GHG emissions from manufacturing

Allowance rebates for energy-intensive, trade-exposed industries

Tariffs on imports from countries without comparable GHG regulatory regimes

Preemption of state GHG regulation

If Kerry, Lieberman, and Graham can actually bring these Senators along, they will have come a long way towards getting a bill passed. However, there are still a number of moderate to conservative Democrats who have not signed this letter and whose support is by no means a sure thing. 

Similarly, one wonders what kind of Republican support there will be, if any. One thing is clear, if a bill is enacted, President Obama and the Congressional leadership are going to owe a big debt to Senator Graham. If he stays on board, it’s hard to see how Senators such as Collins and Snowe don’t sign on as well. 

Environmentalists are the ones who may have to be dragged across the finish line, assuming that final legislation includes preemption, support for nuclear energy and clean coal, a phase-in for manufacturing compliance and, perhaps, off-shore drilling.

Today's Climate Change Forecast

Now that health care legislation has passed, the question is whether passage of the health care bill will unleash a cascade of other legislation, including a climate change bill, or whether Congress will be so exhausted and so polarized that nothing else will happen. I lean to the former position, but only time will tell. One positive indication was Senator Graham’s statement that, notwithstanding his views on the health care bill, he will continue to work towards passage of a climate change bill. Another shout out seems in order for Senator Graham.

The second positive indicator is the chorus of concern recently voiced by environmental groups about the direction in which climate legislation seems to be heading. If the Center for Biological Diversity is expressing grave concern, I suspect that negotiations are probably about where they need to be for a bill to pass. The concern expressed most recently by environmental groups is that the Senate negotiations appear to be headed towards inclusion of language preempting both state regulation and EPA regulation under existing Clean Air Act authority – both of which seem to me to be no-brainers. 

I’m sure that the CBD truly is appalled at the idea of preemption; I hope that the more mainstream environmental groups are more practical and will simply use their opposition as a bargaining chip. While I’m not really in the prognostication business, I’d be about willing to guarantee that there won’t be a bill unless there is preemption language.

Another issue that’s jumped up on the radar screen is off-shore drilling, with a number of Senators indicating that it has to be part of a bill, while 10 Democrats have written to Senators Kerry, Graham, and Lieberman indicating that they may not be able to support a climate change bill that provided for increased off-shore drilling.

Finally, E&E Daily reported that Obama staffers, including Carol Browner, met with Senate Democrats yesterday to discuss ways to move Senate legislation in April. The report indicates that Kerry, Graham, and Lieberman hope to draft a bill in the next few weeks. I don’t think we’re going to see the Senate pass a bill any time soon, but it does look as though things are starting to move.

Climate Legislation: Still Breathing?

Since I did a post earlier today indicating the cap-and-trade legislation is unlikely to become law in the near term, it’s only fair that I also do a post on efforts by Senators Kerry, Graham, and Lieberman to resuscitate the legislation. The bill's prospects are too uncertain to spend too much time on the details. In short, it would include a phased-in approach to regulation, starting with the biggest emitters, such as utilities, combined with a carbon tax on transportation fuels that has been supported by several major oil companies.

To me, the most notable statements come from Senator Graham, the only Republican in the gang of three. Senator Graham has turned out to be one of the more intriguing and less predictable members of Congress in recent years. This may have its pluses and minuses and I have no idea whether he can bring any GOP support along, but you have to sit up and take notice when a Republican says

Cap and trade as we know it is dead, but the issue of cleaning up the air and energy independence should not die -- and you will never have energy independence without pricing carbon.

Of course, he’s right. The sad thing is that the rest of his party has so demonized any and all taxes that no Democrat could possibly say something like this – and many of the distortions in the various bills we’ve seen to date have resulted from strenuous efforts to avoid having consumers see any price signals about the cost of carbon emissions.

Keep sayin’ it, Brother Graham.

Climate Change Legislation Makes Strange Bedfellows: Environmentalists for Nuclear and Coal

Yesterday, Senators Kerry, Graham, and Lieberman sent to President Obama a “framework” for Senate climate change legislation. The framework is short on details and does not contain many surprises. For example, it proposes “near term” – near team is undefined – reductions of 17% from 2005 levels and “long-term” – also undefined – reductions of 80%. 

The framework is nonetheless noteworthy, particularly for its inclusion of strong support for both the coal and nuclear industries. Senator Kerry was must have loved writing “Additional nuclear power is an essential component of our strategy to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.” And this: “We will commit significant resources to the rapid development and deployment of clean coal technology.”

It is clear from the public statements that the Senators have made what this language really means. The translation is fairly easy, but for those not in the know, here goes:

“Nuclear power is essential” means “We need some Republican votes.”

“We will commit substantial resources to … clean coal” means “We need some coal-state Democratic votes.

If this weren’t so important to the environment and our economy, I might enjoy watching this.